This storm is no longer active. This page is its permanent record: the complete observed track, peak intensity, the final NHC forecast cone, and the last advisories as issued.
140
kt at peak
922
mb minimum
16.3
days tracked
0
vessels in final cone
Intensity over the storm's life — NHC best track
Sustained wind (kt, solid) and central pressure (mb, dashed) from the ATCF best track. Bands mark tropical-storm and hurricane category thresholds.
Final NHC Statements
Public Advisory (final captured)
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 300950 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026 ...LOWELL HOLDING STEADY ON A WESTWARD TRACK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 139.1W ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 139.1 West. Lowell is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion will continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Gibbs
Forecast Discussion — the forecaster's reasoning
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 300836 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026 Lowell remains a sheared tropical cyclone this evening. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the bulk of the deep convection over and west of the low-level circulation center. With little change in the satellite presentation, a blend of a scatterometer pass this evening, the latest objective intensity estimates, and the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB supports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory. Lowell is moving westward, or 270/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge positioned north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued generally westward motion. The track guidance remains in relatively good agreement during this period. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread persists, likely due in part to the potential influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering flow. The latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean have changed little over the past several cycles and remain near the southern edge of the guidance envelope, while the GFS, regional hurricane models, and simple consensus (TVCN) continue to favor a gradual west-northwestward to northwestward turn later in the forecast period. Given the considerable spread among these solutions, the latest NHC track forecast continues to reflect a blend of the previous forecast, HCCA, and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect Lowell and should temper the rate of strengthening in the short term. The shear is forecast to decrease during the next day or so, which should allow the cyclone to become better organized. Gradual strengthening is forecast through about 36 h, followed by a faster rate of intensification through 72 h as environmental conditions become more favorable. Although some mid-level dry air could limit the rate of intensification, all of the intensity guidance supports continued strengthening, with Lowell forecast to become a hurricane in about 48 h, with some additional strengthening thereafter. The intensity forecast becomes increasingly uncertain later in the period due to Lowell's potential interaction with Karina. A slower and more northwestward track, as shown by the GFS and some of the regional hurricane models, would bring Lowell closer to Karina and could expose the cyclone to stronger vertical wind shear associated with Karina's outflow, resulting in a weaker cyclone. Conversely, a farther-south track would likely keep the two cyclones sufficiently separated and allow Lowell to maintain its strength or continue strengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to the consensus (IVCN). Lowell is forecast to reach the central Pacific basin in the next few hours, and the next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at 1500 UTC/500 AM HST. Users will not need to change where they obtain information on Lowell, which will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 13.2N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 13.0N 143.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 13.1N 145.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 13.3N 147.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 13.4N 149.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 13.5N 150.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 14.0N 154.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 14.9N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs
Data & citation
Transit counts are gate-line crossings computed hourly from ChartNav's own live AIS network (terrestrial receivers; coverage varies by zone — the coverage figure above says how complete the picture is, and reporting gaps are only flagged for vessels that were underway and stopped reporting globally). Baselines are rolling medians of complete days. Numbers may differ from weekly satellite-AIS datasets such as IMF PortWatch, which lag by several days but see areas terrestrial receivers cannot.